Precision record
Every cliff prediction is eventually graded by the same public record that produced it: either a continuation award posts, or it does not. The machine publishes its own score — including every miss.
Live precision by event type
As of 2026-08-31.
| Event type | Resolved | True positives | False positives | Averted | Still open | Precision |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLIFF_WATCH | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 441 | — |
| CLIFF_CONFIRMED | 29803 | 29718 | 85 | 0 | 3249 | 99.7% |
A prediction resolves as a false positive the moment a renewal or continuation posts inside the resolution window; as a true positive when the window elapses with nothing posted. An averted WATCH is the intended lifecycle of an early warning — the renewal arrived — and is not counted against precision. Nobody hand-labels anything.
Self-issued SLA credits
When a delivered CLIFF_CONFIRMED is falsified within the credit window, the machine issues a Stripe credit automatically and logs it here — no email, no human.
0Credits issued to date
$0Total credited
Correction log — Q3 2026
Every CLIFF_AVERTED published this quarter — the machine's own record of the cliff calls that the public record later contradicted.
| Corrected on | Project | Institution | Corrects | Original event |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | U24HD112205 | UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND BALTIMORE | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-07-20) | cac3857ad4ffbe0f |
| 2026-08-31 | K23HL174407 | ARKANSAS CHILDREN'S HOSPITAL RES INST | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-07-13) | 2509a168375f7a5e |
| 2026-08-31 | R35GM142799 | UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA LOS ANGELES | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-07-06) | 4681e1cf3d1a0199 |
| 2026-08-31 | P41EB027060 | STANFORD UNIVERSITY | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-07-02) | 6adf17aaf9d92c9e |
| 2026-08-31 | R01HL148786 | ICAHN SCHOOL OF MEDICINE AT MOUNT SINAI | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-08-07) | f24d2a13daef3bb2 |
| 2026-08-31 | R01DK117913 | ICAHN SCHOOL OF MEDICINE AT MOUNT SINAI | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-08-02) | b8b098d84bf22ee8 |
| 2026-08-31 | R01DE028883 | UNIVERSITY OF LOUISVILLE | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-07-02) | 8f095bb503451119 |
| 2026-08-31 | R01HL148123 | OKLAHOMA MEDICAL RESEARCH FOUNDATION | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-08-02) | 8e51d10a8b230a77 |
| 2026-08-31 | R01NS115963 | WINIFRED MASTERSON BURKE MED RES INST | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-08-02) | 9112db87747258ec |
| 2026-08-31 | R01HL127316 | PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV HERSHEY MED CTR | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-08-02) | 18112776a5eb1a5f |
| 2026-08-24 | R01NS105820 | MASSACHUSETTS GENERAL HOSPITAL | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-08-02) | 8d10d0fe2d5fc876 |
| 2026-08-24 | T32AI005284 | UT SOUTHWESTERN MEDICAL CENTER | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-08-02) | d5973fe689d6a9e4 |
| 2026-08-24 | R01NS109541 | DUKE UNIVERSITY | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-08-02) | bd26bd4d5b76d101 |
| 2026-08-24 | R01DK117890 | DUKE UNIVERSITY | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-08-02) | d94340515e8eadd6 |
| 2026-08-24 | R01AI148523 | VIRGINIA POLYTECHNIC INST AND ST UNIV | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-08-02) | a8505ddfe27cd7fd |
| 2026-08-24 | R01DK123248 | UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-08-02) | a603f3c62114e41b |
| 2026-08-24 | R01HG009351 | WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-08-02) | ca234688065fcee0 |
| 2026-08-24 | D43TW011513 | UNIVERSITY OF GHANA | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-07-02) | 946ae9681db14f47 |
| 2026-08-24 | R01DK116999 | UNIV OF MASSACHUSETTS MED SCH WORCESTER | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-08-02) | 3941b6574625be75 |
| 2026-08-24 | R24ES029489 | COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY HEALTH SCIENCES | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-08-15) | 9dff47fdbd99effc |
| 2026-08-24 | P50MH119029 | NORTHWESTERN UNIVERSITY | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-08-02) | b02d8a07c41e6919 |
| 2026-08-24 | R01CA245314 | MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-08-02) | 4c3b5d02c9caea47 |
| 2026-08-24 | R01AR073938 | SEATTLE CHILDREN'S HOSPITAL | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-08-02) | 0313656e86aab4b9 |
| 2026-08-24 | R01CA225463 | UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-08-02) | a46398112e654c8b |
| 2026-08-24 | R01NS041783 | BRIGHAM AND WOMEN'S HOSPITAL | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-07-13) | 3a7145fc573ee218 |
| 2026-08-17 | R01HG011866 | STANFORD UNIVERSITY | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-08-02) | a0dbeb844f882f89 |
| 2026-08-17 | P20GM130443 | UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA FAIRBANKS | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-08-02) | f4679c541469c6e9 |
| 2026-08-17 | R01HL155098 | UNIV OF NORTH CAROLINA CHAPEL HILL | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-08-07) | e3cee6062daf294c |
| 2026-08-17 | R01NS040237 | BOSTON COLLEGE | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-08-02) | 7c3e4ab473aff7cb |
| 2026-08-17 | R44HL162218 | STARLIGHT CARDIOVASCULAR, INC. | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-07-16) | fccbe8922d059624 |
| 2026-08-17 | R01AR075018 | BOSTON CHILDREN'S HOSPITAL | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-08-02) | 1d4d40f2c22852d7 |
| 2026-08-17 | R01HL036153 | BOSTON UNIVERSITY MEDICAL CAMPUS | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-07-19) | 63b9e4fabfdedcec |
| 2026-08-17 | R01AG066883 | NORTH CAROLINA STATE UNIVERSITY RALEIGH | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-08-02) | c227ff9fefe72814 |
| 2026-08-17 | R35GM141964 | UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH AT PITTSBURGH | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-07-06) | 5ef31a10580d0b0d |
| 2026-08-17 | R35GM118092 | SLOAN-KETTERING INST CAN RESEARCH | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-07-02) | 6ccdaa8ef61cf83e |
| 2026-08-17 | K24HL155861 | NEW YORK UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF MEDICINE | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-07-16) | 1ef9cec76e099289 |
| 2026-08-17 | R01HL139629 | YALE UNIVERSITY | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-08-02) | 2bf1b3dfac3bfce8 |
| 2026-08-17 | R01HL149742 | HUGO W. MOSER RES INST KENNEDY KRIEGER | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-08-02) | 708c9392d3ed4c6b |
| 2026-08-17 | R01HD092499 | UNIVERSITY OF MASSACHUSETTS AMHERST | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-08-02) | db47627c829af1f9 |
| 2026-08-17 | R01CA229305 | UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-08-02) | ee638cd1f87d53f2 |
| 2026-08-17 | R01NS072381 | ROCKEFELLER UNIVERSITY | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-08-02) | eb6fdbd0c6174d51 |
| 2026-08-17 | RF1NS120992 | MAYO CLINIC ROCHESTER | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-08-02) | ee6dd034200dca61 |
| 2026-08-17 | P30DA013429 | TEMPLE UNIV OF THE COMMONWEALTH | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-08-02) | 6161dc5e366bb926 |
| 2026-08-17 | R15GM085722 | MOREHEAD STATE UNIVERSITY | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-08-02) | f42ae8f6a9481e6e |
| 2026-08-17 | R01AI145552 | UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-08-02) | bc327c61537d7c1c |
| 2026-08-17 | R01HG008140 | STANFORD UNIVERSITY | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-08-02) | 34df96b26f8e1361 |
| 2026-08-17 | R01CA054358 | JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-08-02) | 0e30657b5fdc211a |
| 2026-08-17 | R01HL146744 | OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-08-02) | 382eeab8d5b1c6fc |
| 2026-08-17 | R01AI097134 | UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH AT PITTSBURGH | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-08-02) | ba40efc4067779f7 |
| 2026-08-17 | R35GM136288 | UNIVERSITY OF VERMONT & ST AGRIC COLLEGE | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-08-02) | d315899a4ec45757 |
| 2026-08-17 | R01AR040864 | UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-07-15) | 52c4e1c36edaba6d |
| 2026-08-10 | R25AG048787 | UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA AT DAVIS | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-08-02) | 98b44fefe5a3e88b |
| 2026-08-10 | R01EY023966 | UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH AT PITTSBURGH | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-08-02) | 32926ca7b76b4ed0 |
| 2026-08-10 | T32AG071444 | INDIANA UNIVERSITY INDIANAPOLIS | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-07-24) | 91e40dd25db63839 |
| 2026-08-10 | R01AI089956 | UNIVERSITY OF ALABAMA AT BIRMINGHAM | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-08-02) | 41c1f18e540ce05a |
| 2026-08-10 | R35GM140819 | ARIZONA STATE UNIVERSITY-TEMPE CAMPUS | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-07-02) | 54cadc044bfedb55 |
| 2026-08-10 | R44HL152912 | COGNITA LABS, LLC | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-08-02) | 5ac33f2137ae2b30 |
| 2026-08-10 | U2FFD008110 | ALABAMA STATE DEPT OF PUBLIC HEALTH | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-08-02) | c251a4a78d0ce525 |
| 2026-08-10 | R01HD099150 | COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-08-02) | ec54423de3b6c416 |
| 2026-08-10 | R01EY015518 | MEDICAL COLLEGE OF WISCONSIN | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-08-02) | c4828c5ffd118222 |
| 2026-08-10 | R01EY030054 | OAKLAND UNIVERSITY | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-08-02) | d09c077562144b1d |
| 2026-08-10 | R44AI157322 | HELIXBIND, INC. | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-08-02) | f9aa56fbb34b05ef |
| 2026-08-10 | R01CA248315 | UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-08-02) | a60c7d18843f0cd7 |
| 2026-08-10 | R01MH118344 | YALE UNIVERSITY | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-08-02) | 0b1e4c9573b83ea6 |
| 2026-08-10 | T34GM137861 | COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-08-02) | ba6f03066b823b04 |
| 2026-08-03 | R25HD074544 | COLUMBIA UNIV NEW YORK MORNINGSIDE | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-08-02) | cb8a0a948d27a13a |
| 2026-08-03 | P50AA024333 | CLEVELAND CLINIC LERNER COM-CWRU | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-07-02) | 4222d899033a046e |
| 2026-08-03 | R35GM139602 | JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-07-02) | 4bf91b45577289f3 |
| 2026-08-03 | R15GM140422 | WICHITA STATE UNIVERSITY | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-08-02) | 96f408135323a081 |
| 2026-08-03 | R01HD110860 | UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-07-20) | aebf281e82255c27 |
| 2026-08-03 | R01EY030537 | SMITH-KETTLEWELL EYE RESEARCH INSTITUTE | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-08-02) | 9e4ef137f2818ee5 |
| 2026-08-03 | R01MH122867 | BOSTON UNIVERSITY MEDICAL CAMPUS | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-08-02) | 74be805bcb129d62 |
| 2026-08-03 | R01AR078000 | UNIVERSITY OF ROCHESTER | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-08-02) | 1b44075a8d5ec0b8 |
| 2026-08-03 | R01EY033364 | SEATTLE CHILDREN'S HOSPITAL | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-07-02) | 644eca161236659c |
| 2026-08-03 | K08DA049913 | NEW YORK STATE PSYCHIATRIC INSTITUTE DBA RESEARCH FOUNDATION FOR MENTAL HYGIENE, INC | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-08-02) | ff28358dbbc021e7 |
| 2026-08-03 | R35GM131745 | UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-08-02) | 574a417a50a5d5a2 |
| 2026-08-03 | R01EY024056 | SMITH-KETTLEWELL EYE RESEARCH INSTITUTE | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-08-02) | 7119baadb6f32a30 |
| 2026-08-03 | R01HL152957 | UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN FRANCISCO | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-08-02) | da9f00512e4d759a |
| 2026-08-03 | R35GM143061 | WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-07-02) | 98319c20d6d2bc39 |
| 2026-08-03 | R15MH127534 | VASSAR COLLEGE | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-08-02) | 1657a26a9eb391d9 |
| 2026-08-03 | R35GM142634 | MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-07-06) | 6cceafaea3d39024 |
| 2026-08-03 | R01GM145752 | HARVARD UNIVERSITY | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-07-02) | 420c1cdb996162cb |
| 2026-08-03 | R15GM139104 | UNIVERSITY OF NORTH FLORIDA | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-08-02) | d7c79c02ad3b9b74 |
| 2026-08-03 | R35GM142825 | YALE UNIVERSITY | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-07-02) | d3a07498ef5ed29f |
| 2026-08-03 | R01MH123803 | NORTHEASTERN UNIVERSITY | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-08-02) | a12268f17b4148b2 |
| 2026-08-03 | R01HL151152 | FRED HUTCHINSON CANCER CENTER | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-08-02) | 40d1dc0b3be5858c |
| 2026-08-03 | R01DK119380 | BOSTON CHILDREN'S HOSPITAL | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-08-02) | 36a98e9cddcfa840 |
| 2026-08-03 | R01DK055679 | UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN AT ANN ARBOR | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-08-02) | 8adc1aba397c2cbf |
| 2026-08-03 | R35GM118135 | WHITEHEAD INSTITUTE FOR BIOMEDICAL RES | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-07-02) | 4ad5ea67a502f159 |
| 2026-08-03 | R01AG066921 | BRIGHAM AND WOMEN'S HOSPITAL | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-08-02) | ff4c28c498cfad08 |
| 2026-08-03 | R01DK122164 | YALE UNIVERSITY | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-08-02) | 9e884ef002ad5926 |
| 2026-08-03 | R01HL142754 | CASE WESTERN RESERVE UNIVERSITY | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-08-02) | 8a7266c74747dafd |
| 2026-08-03 | R01CA125577 | UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN AT ANN ARBOR | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-08-02) | b346d0795880a655 |
| 2026-08-03 | R01GM111808 | BAYLOR COLLEGE OF MEDICINE | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-08-02) | 6af6c322c76090e6 |
| 2026-08-03 | R01MH070053 | CALIFORNIA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-08-02) | 88d8beecaec84f93 |
| 2026-08-03 | K24DA050087 | NEW YORK STATE PSYCHIATRIC INSTITUTE DBA RESEARCH FOUNDATION FOR MENTAL HYGIENE, INC | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-08-02) | 61d697747c51e887 |
| 2026-08-03 | R01AA026685 | SCRIPPS RESEARCH INSTITUTE, THE | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-08-02) | 18ebf3551a33033e |
| 2026-08-03 | R35GM138226 | UNIVERSITY OF CONNECTICUT STORRS | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-08-02) | 0bae75b8cf69b33a |
| 2026-08-03 | R01HL126974 | UNIV OF NORTH CAROLINA CHAPEL HILL | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-08-02) | 1d59833c7abb8a54 |
| 2026-07-20 | U10CA180868 | NRG ONCOLOGY FOUNDATION, INC. | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-07-02) | 7a1e63aa98a1b4e7 |
| 2026-07-20 | U24CA180803 | AMERICAN COLLEGE OF RADIOLOGY | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-07-02) | 0c7cd7dd78cc98f3 |
| 2026-07-20 | R01AI165080 | UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-07-10) | 6bd98fa932e08063 |
| 2026-07-20 | U10CA180863 | QUEEN'S UNIVERSITY AT KINGSTON | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-07-02) | 69c79c319a909afd |
| 2026-07-20 | R01AR063759 | BRIGHAM AND WOMEN'S HOSPITAL | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-07-02) | 649486b21290551c |
| 2026-07-20 | U10CA180820 | ECOG-ACRIN MEDICAL RESEARCH FOUNDATION | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-07-02) | 5cdbf0a271c0e686 |
| 2026-07-20 | U10CA180822 | UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-07-02) | 0153a763406531ae |
| 2026-07-20 | P51OD011132 | EMORY UNIVERSITY | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-07-15) | 52194d80241931ad |
| 2026-07-13 | R35GM118048 | UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-07-02) | 12dd4222284283f6 |
| 2026-07-13 | R01AI155558 | SLOAN-KETTERING INST CAN RESEARCH | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-07-02) | 7d0ebc93f8cbc037 |
| 2026-07-13 | R01AI122528 | UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA BERKELEY | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-07-02) | 5d04a995a2611ee2 |
| 2026-07-13 | U10CA180794 | DANA-FARBER CANCER INST | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-07-02) | cc31a5544c36855a |
| 2026-07-13 | R35GM118080 | SLOAN-KETTERING INST CAN RESEARCH | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-07-02) | 876e5418e78ddaec |
| 2026-07-13 | U10CA180899 | UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-07-02) | c91bb7d83e6cecc6 |
| 2026-07-06 | U10CA180888 | OREGON HEALTH & SCIENCE UNIVERSITY | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-07-02) | 4199522739e5bd4b |
| 2026-07-06 | R01AR051749 | UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO DENVER | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-07-02) | 1622f9942ea705d3 |
| 2026-07-06 | R35GM141748 | UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN-MADISON | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-07-02) | 7043c30d53feadc0 |
| 2026-07-06 | K24ES031131 | UNIV OF NORTH CAROLINA CHAPEL HILL | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-07-02) | 3dfcf8506e0536c3 |
| 2026-07-06 | R01EY031467 | UNIVERSITY OF ROCHESTER | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-07-02) | 1c3685cfe6190a91 |
| 2026-07-06 | R35GM149209 | UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA AT DAVIS | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-07-02) | f28885dbf2d11d82 |
| 2026-07-06 | R01AI116420 | STATE UNIVERSITY NEW YORK STONY BROOK | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-07-02) | 16267192939c6ecf |
| 2026-07-06 | R35GM140847 | UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN FRANCISCO | CLIFF_CONFIRMED (2026-07-02) | 7c415cb1099cc439 |
Why publish this? Because a lead feed that hides its error rate is asking for trust; one that publishes it is earning renewal. The full event log and every resolution live in the public repository — the git history is the audit trail.